Compared with the stock price that once exceeded 600 yuan last year, the stock price of Global Crystals has been falling this year, and now it is hovering around 300 yuan. The double threats in market competition and investment are the two major difficulties in its development.
In May this year, Xu Xiulan, chairman of Globe Cylinder, flew to Texas, USA, and was on the same stage as Michael Grimes, executive director of the Investment Accelerator Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce, to launch the latest 12-inch advanced silicon crystal manufacturing factory of Globe Cylinder, and announced a plan to invest US$4 billion in an additional investment, planning the third and fourth phases of the construction project at the site.
Factory expansion layout Target price has been revised down by external incomeThe recent rapid expansion of global crystals has been made. Two new factories in Texas and Missouri, the United States, as well as the new production capacity of Italian factories, have all delivered samples and strived to enter the mass production stage.
However, behind the expansion of global layout, the operation performance of GC is weak, with an annual revenue of 62.6 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 11.4% compared with the recession in 2023. In addition to shrinking, profits have become even weaker. The after-tax per share (EPS) in 2024 was RMB 21.06, which is more than half of the year in 2023; the EPS in the first quarter of this year was RMB 3.05, which is more than 60% of the recession in the same period in 2024.
The operating performance is sluggish, which has allowed the price of GC stocks to rise from a high of 600 yuan, and the P/E ratio has climbed from 11.93 times at the beginning of last year to 18.55 times in June this year; in May this year, Goldman Sachs Securities also lowered its target price of GC.
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"Now, only advanced processes (market conditions) are better, but many of them are not advanced (market conditions) are still very weak." Xu Xiulan, who is also the chairman of Taiwan Specialty, told the challenge of global crystals after the Taiwan Specialty Re-Information Journalists Association, "I don't think there is a big chance to have eight-inch growth."
The current proportion of global crystals is still mainly based on 8-inch silicon wafers that mainly supply mature processes; even 12-inch silicon wafers are currently delivered to mature process customers, and it is expected that they will have to wait until the new European and American production capacity is in place before further expanding the advanced process market.
However, the 8-inch crystal circle not only has limited growth space, but also faces low-price competition from China.
An unknown industry analyst explained that when Chinese silicon wafers can continue to expand and prices continue to decline, the manufacturing situation from "8 inches to 12 inches" is no longer reversible; in addition, mature process expansion is almost in China, and with the trend of Chinese semiconductor domestic production, for global crystals, Japan Shin-Etsu, etc., "Unless IDM (vertical integration manufacturer) invests the order to crystal wafer foundry factories, the market will be like this."
Research report from the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) pointed out that the global shipment of 8-inch crystal circles fell by 13.4% in 2024 compared with the previous year. In contrast, some of the 12-inch wafers that are subject to advanced processes have seen a slight increase of 2% year-on-year in the same year. In order to achieve different layout advantages, Globe Crystal is striving to build a 12-inch advanced silicon crystal circular manufacturing factory.
In the technical blueprint, Xu Xiulan pointed out that the SOI (elusive layer overlaid silicon) crystal circle. According to the information management consultant and chief of the company, Zheng Kai'an, the SOI crystal is the key material for silicon photonic packaging, "This is a relatively higher-priced crystal."
Although Japanese SUMCO, Shin-ei and other industries also have the ability to manufacture SOI crystals, Xu Xiulan pointed out that the sphere crystals have also locked the political effect of the ground and laid out the new Misso Lizhou line. This will be "the first and only 12-inch SOI crystals (productivity) in the United States."
Xu Xiulan revealed that although the delivery stage is still in the process of delivery, "many of the production capacity has been sold."
According to a report by research agency Wise Guy Reports, the SOI crystal market will grow to US$10.5 billion with an annual synthesis rate of 13.6% by 2032. Xu Xiulan said that the strategy of fully expanding the production capacity of 12-inch wafers, locking advanced processes and silicon photon packaging is expected to make 12-inch wafers the main force in the production of capital next year; among which the application proportion of advanced processes will also reach 50% of the 12-inch wafers in the first half of next year.